Following the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday (April 21), speculation has surged around who might be the next leader of the Catholic Church. According to bookmakers, one man is emerging as the front-runner: 70-year-old Cardinal Pietro Parolin, hailing from the Veneto region of Italy.
But as buzz builds around his potential papacy, one question looms large—where does he stand on LGBTQ+ rights?
Betting on the Next Pope
Parolin leads the papal race with 11/4 odds, translating to a 26.7% chance, according to major betting platforms. He’s closely followed by Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, who sits at 7/2 odds (a 22.2% chance). Cardinals Peter Turkson of Ghana and Matteo Zuppi of Italy trail slightly, each holding 7/1 odds, or a 12.5% probability.
While placing bets on who becomes pope might seem irreverent, it has long been a niche tradition for gamblers and religious watchers alike. But this year, the political and social implications of the decision have never felt more pressing.
Pope Francis’ LGBTQ+ Legacy
Pope Francis, who passed away at the age of 88, was widely viewed as a bridge-builder between tradition and progress. Though still bound by Church doctrine, he made several groundbreaking statements in support of LGBTQ+ people.
“Being gay is not a crime,” he famously said, denouncing anti-LGBTQ+ laws worldwide. He also publicly opposed Uganda’s harsh Anti-Homosexuality Act, stating, “Discrimination is a sin, and violence against the LGBTIQ communities is unacceptable.”
While he stopped short of endorsing marriage equality, Francis encouraged parents to love their LGBTQ+ children and repeatedly affirmed the dignity of queer people.
Is Parolin Progressive—or Playing It Safe?
So, where does Cardinal Parolin fit into this picture?
Parolin has served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, a role akin to the Church’s prime minister. Known for his diplomatic finesse, Parolin has negotiated with communist governments, championed nuclear disarmament, and worked to mediate global conflicts.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin attends the celebration of the second vespers on the occasion of the solemnity of the conversion of St. Paul led by Pope Francis at St Paul’s Basilica outside the Walls on January 25, 2024 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Alessandra Benedetti – Corbis/Getty Images)
But politically, Parolin remains a bit of an enigma.
“He’s not easily boxed in as left or right,” The Independent reported. Newsweek has described him as a centrist figure seen as a “safe pair of hands” who could continue Francis’ more moderate path.
Some within the College of Cardinals have labeled him a “modernist progressive with a globalist vision,” while others praise his diplomatic cool-headedness and commitment to peace.
What Has He Said About LGBTQ+ Rights?
Parolin’s record on LGBTQ+ issues is mixed—and relatively quiet.
In April 2019, he met with international legal experts calling for the Vatican to denounce conversion therapy, but he stopped short of explicitly condemning the criminalization of same-sex relationships.
Parolin has voiced concern about “gender ideology,” calling it “extremely dangerous,” a stance that aligns with conservative elements in the Church. However, he firmly rejected the idea that homosexuality causes clergy sexual abuse, calling such claims “scientifically untenable.”
“Homosexual orientation cannot be considered a typical cause or trait of abusers,” he said at the time.
Still, his public statements on LGBTQ+ topics have been limited. That could soon change if he becomes pope, as he would be expected to take a clear stance on the ongoing cultural and political battles surrounding queer rights—especially in a world where LGBTQ+ communities are increasingly under attack.
What’s Next?
For now, all eyes are on the College of Cardinals as they prepare to enter the conclave to elect the next pope. Whether Parolin steps into the white robes remains to be seen—but if he does, he’ll inherit a Church at a cultural crossroads.
Will he follow in Francis’ footsteps, cautiously nudging the Church toward inclusion? Or will he lean more conservative under pressure from traditionalist factions?
One thing is certain: whoever takes up the papal mantle will have no shortage of challenges ahead—and LGBTQ+ issues will be among them.
